Playoffs Clinched
The Stars are in, but this team has loftier goals
The Stars locked in a playoff spot on Sunday night, despite losing to Vegas for only their second regulation loss in 19 games. Clinching a playoff berth was more of a formality than it was a big reveal. But now the question is, where do they go from here?
I hate to say the Stars are toast when it comes to the race for the number one seed, as they are only seven points back from Colorado with 11 games to go and one game in hand for the Avalanche. But if you look at the difficulty of the schedule for the two teams at the top of the Central Division, the Stars face more of an uphill battle than do the Avalanche.
The Stars face the 12th toughest schedule, playing against six teams in the playoffs, including Colorado and Minnesota. The Avalanche, in their 12 remaining games, have the 2nd easiest schedule, facing only one playoff team in Dallas, while playing three games against Calgary and two games apiece against St. Louis and Winnipeg. It does not look like the Stars will overcome their tougher schedule to overtake the Avs.
On the flip side, the Stars do have to worry about the Minnesota Wild overtaking them for second in the division. The Stars are only five points ahead with a game in hand, but have a head-to-head matchup on April 9th. The Wild have a slightly easier remaining schedule, and have now beaten the Stars twice, once before the Quinn Hughes trade, and this past week without Kaprizov in the lineup.
The goal for the Stars, at this point, should be to at least remain in second place, if they are unable to overtake the Avalanche for first.
The bigger goal has to be for the Stars to get and stay healthy going into the playoffs. Last season, the Stars were without Miro Heiskanen for several months, including the first eight games of the postseason after he sustained an injury on January 29th. Then, in the last game of the season, Jason Robertson injured his knee and missed the entire first round of the playoffs.
If the Stars are going to make it through the gauntlet that is the Central Division this year, they cannot be limping into the playoffs. The Stars are already without Mikko Rantanen, Radek Faksa, and Roope Hintz. Rantanen is expected to return possibly at the end of this upcoming four game road trip, while Hintz and Faksa are both hopeful to return in time for the playoffs, if not right before.
I am not saying that the Stars should “load manage” like the NBA does, but they do need to be wary of getting anyone else hurt. Myers has already taken a “maintenance” day, and there may be a couple of others who follow suit (although I imagine the forward depth is already thinned out).
The Argument for Jake Oettinger
After losing to Colorado in a 5-4 shootout, the discussion of whether Jake Oettinger is the guy to take the Stars to the promised land reared its ugly head again. Some fans want Casey DeSmith, Oettinger’s backup, to be the goalie for the playoffs. And games like last night, where Oettinger gives up four goals in the first period to the New Jersey Devils, don’t help his case.
In his career, Jake Oettinger has 78 more wins than DeSmith. In significantly fewer games, DeSmith has only 15 fewer combined regulation and overtime losses. While DeSmith’s numbers this season look better than Jake’s, he also usually is taking on lesser opponents in lower stakes matchups.
Oettinger is not Bobrovsky, Vasilevsky, or Hellebuyck. But, in this “down” season, he has a better save percentage, goals against average, and more wins than Bobrovsky or Hellebuyck, and is only four wins behind Vasilevsky this season. There are few goalies you would take over Oettinger. He is not the best in the world, but he is very close to the group that is.
I will just leave this Bob Sturm tweet here to further the case:
It is funny to say Jake is having a “bad” year when he was named the NHL’s Second Star of the Week for the week ending March 15th.
This discussion can only be closed when Jake leads the Stars to the Stanley Cup and wins. Maybe this will be the year he does it.
How Have the New Guys Fared
At the trade deadline, the Stars made two peripheral moves to add Tyler Myers and Michael Bunting. While it has been a limited sample size, let’s look at how the two newest Stars are settling in.
If Rantanen and Hintz were both healthy, Bunting would likely check in as a third liner. As it stands, he is right around the same time-on-ice as Jamie Benn and Mavrik Bourque, who likely check in as your third line when everyone is healthy.
Myers has stabilized the third line and given the Stars another penalty killing defenseman, as he has averaged the third most penalty kill minutes per game behind only Heiskanen and Lindell.
His biggest contribution will be if he can stay on the ice in the playoffs. In past playoff runs, the Stars have played with basically only five defenseman. In 2024, in a clinching game 6, the Stars played Alexander Petrovic and Ryan Suter only six minutes each, while Heiskanen played 30. That was the same playoffs where Nils Lundquist drew the ire of Head Coach Pete DeBoer, and against Colorado played only six minutes in one game, and three shifts in the next.
Bunting’s contributions have been less pronounced. His power play goal against Detroit was vital for the Stars to be able to win in OT. Other than that, the results have been limited. He is playing a lot of minutes on the second power play unit, but games last night, where he had the lowest time on ice amongst Stars forwards, is concerning.
Wyatt Johnston’s record setting season
In a season full of franchise records being broken, Wyatt Johnston’s performance has been nothing short of spectacular.
Johnston has now scored the most power play goals in a season in franchise history, passing Dino Ciccarelli’s 22 in the 1986-1987 season for the Minnesota North Stars. Johnston passed by a couple of Dallas Stars along the way, including Mike Modano in 1993-1994, and Jamie Benn in 2015-2016.
Johnston’s ability to score on the power play has made the Stars one of the most dangerous teams in the league when up a man. The Stars have the second best power play in the league, led by Johnston and Jason Robertson, who has 13 power play goals of his own.
Johnston’s overall play has him tied for third in the entire league in goals, tied with Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov. That is elite company for the 22-year-old.